California Business Minute™

Hi, I am Tim Johnson and welcome to the California Business Minute.

This past week, economic and employment data has illustrated a decline in activity.
This has many analysts and economists raising questions about a weakening economy,
and specifically since the downturn is occurring in the beginning of summer.

For example, confidence among consumers sank in June as Americans became distressed
over the outlook for jobs and incomes. The Conference Board’s Confidence Index
slumped to 52.9 this month from a revised 62.7 in May.   Meanwhile, pending sales of
existing housing fell at twice the rate absent of the housing tax credit.  Additionally,
the Institute for Supply Management’s, Manufacturing Index fell further than analysts
expected. And the Dept. of Labor is reporting that last week’s Unemployment claims rose
to 472,000 validating this concern.

Lies Damn Lies and Statistics
Meanwhile, last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released data on June employment
numbers.  It is deceiving.  First nationally unemployment went down to 9.5% from 9.7%
U-3 employment numbers.  And while private payrolls increased by 83,000, overall payrolls
decreased by 125,000 caused by the reduction of 225,000 census workers.  But the reason
why the unemployment numbers fell is because there are 632,000 less people in the
workforce since May and over a million less since June 2009.

All total it leaves a disconcerting economic data and validates the recent economic
forecasts from UCLA, Chapman University and California Lutheran University of a
slowing economy.

I am Tim Johnson and this has been the California Business Minute.