CALIFORNIA BUSINESS MINUTE
Recession?
10-05-11
Hi, I am Tim Johnson and welcome to the California Business Minute.
California is not headed into a recession, but the job outlook remains “horrible”,
according to a new UCLA Anderson School forecast.
The UCLA Anderson Forecast sees a tale of two states, as Coastal California enjoys
a recovery rooted in exports, innovation and knowledge communities, while Inland
California continues to suffer from a glut of housing and a contraction in government
spending.
The report "California: Bifurcated and Buffeted," identifies that now that the U.S.
economy has stalled, the differential between Coastal California and Inland California
has begun to widen and the specter of long-term economic stagnation in Inland California
has reared a “not very pretty head."
The current forecast for California calls for slow growth until the end of 2012. The
most likely scenario for the state will be a slow build over the next 12 months
followed by an incipient recovery period. The California forecast sees virtually no
growth in employment, with employment growth of 0.7% and 2.1% expected in 2012 and
2013 respectively. Payrolls will grow at a forecasted .6% and 2.0% for the forecast
years through 2013 and the unemployment rate will hover around 12% for the rest of
this year and will average 11% through 2013.
I am Tim Johnson and this has been the California Business Minute.
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