California Business Minute™

Hi, I am Tim Johnson and welcome to the California Business Minute.

The University of San Diego publishes a monthly index of leading economic indicators.
The index fell by a relatively large 1.1 percent in February, marking the 22nd time
the index has fallen in the past 23 months.

USD economist Alan Gin, who compiles the index, said there is no turnaround in sight.
“This is a bad situation,” Gin said. “We'll have trouble for at least the first half
of this year. Housing prices will continue to slump, and retail sales will continue
to slow. “Even if housing prices bottom out in the second half of the year – which
is possible – it will take a while before things actually start moving up.”

In previously reports, Gin has suggested that while the county is going through a
“San Diego-style” recession – meaning extremely slow growth – it would avoid meeting
 the technical definition of a regional recession, which entails a decline in the
gross regional product and year-to-year drops in employment.
 
However, five of the six components of the USD index were in negative territory:
building permits, job postings, consumer confidence, stock prices, national economy.
The one bright spot in the index was that initial claims for unemployment benefits
slid in February. Nevertheless, after huge jumps in filings in October and November,
unemployment has remained at or above the 5 percent level for the past three months.

I am Tim Johnson and this has been the California Business Minute.

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