California Business Minute™

Hi, I am Tim Johnson and welcome to the California Business Minute.

The National Association of Business Economists' poll of 50 professional forecasters
released on Monday found that real gross domestic product was expected to fall 2.6
percent in the fourth quarter and slump 1.3 percent in the first three months of 2009.

"Business economists became decidedly more negative on the economic outlook for
the next several quarters as a result of the intensification of credit market stresses
and evidence of spillover to the real economy," said NABE President Chris Varvares.

About 96 percent of the NABE forecasters believed that the world's economic power
house was already in recession. Half of them estimated the downturn started in the
fourth quarter of 2007 or in the first quarter of 2008.

On an optimistic note, analysts said the housing sales rout was likely to bottom out by
mid-2009, but a lot of uncertainty remains as new home inventories run at 10-months' supply,
the survey found. Inflationary pressures would be contained as the economic downturn caps
demand for oil.

I am Tim Johnson and this has been the California Business Minute.